New Zealand could lose more than 100 people to drowning in 2026 for the first time in nearly 25 years.
It’s a stark reminder on World Drowning Prevention Day that efforts to reduce our most deadly recreational killer requires more work to help Kiwis change their behaviour around water.
In 2026 drownings are bucking the trend of recent years. So far this year, 57 people have drowned – 18 more than at the same time last year.
Until now, there has been a steady decline in the 10-year average of drowning deaths per 100,000 of population. In 2025 it reached its lowest level to date, at 1.67 deaths per 100,000.
Updated predictive modelling now shows up to 101 lives could be lost in a preventable drowning by the end of December 2026. With a large El Niño weather pattern also expected to bring change to water environments later in the year, Water Safety NZ chief executive Glen Scanlon describes the numbers as immensely concerning.
“The drowning numbers this year are terribly sobering. We see consistent trends with people undertaking water activities alone, not wearing lifejackets and underestimating the conditions.
“Men, aged 25 and above, continue to make up more than 80% of drowning deaths. We are very concerned, with the super El Nino predicted, what it will mean for water conditions and how people approach them. Overseas, we have already witnessed the impact of the heatwaves on drowning deaths in Europe.”
Comparison of drownings from 1980 to 2025 within the six-month period of spring and summer reveals there are 10 more drownings on average during high El Niño compared to other spring and summer periods.
Days where people are drawn to the water, more days where conditions are windier, more variable, or more dangerous than they appear may increase exposure risk of drowning.
Scanlon also said 64% of deaths so far in 2026 involved people undertaking water activities alone.
“We want people to enjoy their time in and on the water – have fun with their family and mates. Going alone is one of the worst things you can do – whether swimming, kai gathering or heading out on the boat.”
World Drowning Prevention Day (25 July) aims to raise awareness of the importance of drowning prevention and reduce preventable death, with the theme Unite to Turn the Tide.
Water Safety NZ is proud to work alongside everyone in the water safety community – partners, advocates, funders, community leaders, employers and individuals who use their voice to save lives. Water safety agencies including Surf Life Saving New Zealand, Coastguard Tautiaki Moana, NZ Sport Fishing Council, Drowning Prevention Auckland, Maritime New Zealand, and local government are united in turning the tide and taking action on preventable drowning.
“New Zealand’s conditions are already unpredictable,” says Scanlon. “Staying safe and respecting the water means following safety advice.
“Never assume you know a place well simply because you have been there before. The vital steps of regularly checking wind and weather forecasts before and during anyone’s time in, on, or around water becomes even more critical with the predicted intensity of El Niño,” Scanlon said.
Drowning numbers
- As of 21 July (Tuesday) 57 people have drowned so far in 2026
- Just three of the fatalities are women – 54 males
- People aged 35-54 make up 32 of the 2026 drownings
- A total of 64 per cent of the 2026 drownings to date were alone in or on the water
- People fishing alone, people who go out on water without a lifejacket, and people who do not share their plans with others contribute to the risk of drowning in 2026.
- Six people drowned fishing from land so far in 2026 and there are six underwater drownings.
El Niño and drowning in New Zealand
No two seasons are ever the same. Stronger winds, larger swells, more powerful surf, unpredictable river flows and rapidly changing weather all increase the risks faced by recreational water users.
- 1980-2025 During the six-month period of spring and summer in a non-El Niño period the median drowning number is 58
- 1980-2025 During the six-month period of spring and summer in an El Niño period the median drowning number is 67
World Drowning Prevention Day – World Health Organisation global awareness day
Saturday 25 July 2026 provides an important opportunity to reflect on where New Zealand sits both within the global picture and trends - and locally, in the current context.
World Drowning Prevention Day also highlights how New Zealand mirrors many of the challenges identified in the World Health Organisation's Global Strategy for Drowning Prevention.
Globally, drowning disproportionately affects disadvantaged communities. The global strategy also identifies drowning as a largely preventable cause of death, with proven, cost-effective interventions available.
Read more: World Drowning Prevention Day 2026
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